Oil production by the 11 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries rose by an estimated 1.17 million barrels per day in July to 19.85 million bpd, according to a Reuters survey published on August 10. Gulf producers restored part of the supply previously shut by war-related disruption and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The increase extended a recovery from May, when Reuters surveys placed OPEC output at its lowest monthly level since at least 2000. Even after July’s gain, production remained far below agreed targets. The figure excludes the United Arab Emirates, which left OPEC on May 1, making comparisons with older totals dependent on consistent membership definitions.

Iraq delivered the largest monthly increase, followed by Kuwait. Iran also raised exports, although the renewed United States blockade of Iranian ports in mid-July slowed shipments again. Saudi supply edged lower, while Libya increased production and was less directly affected by the US-Israel war with Iran.

Seven OPEC+ producers, including non-OPEC ally Russia, had agreed to increase output in July. The conflict prevented the group from achieving the planned rise. This gap between announced policy and physical supply matters because quotas, production capacity and export access are different variables. A country may have permission to pump more but remain unable to move barrels safely to customers.

Reuters based its estimate on flow data from LSEG, other tracking companies including Kpler, and information from oil companies, OPEC officials and consultants. It is therefore a survey-based estimate rather than the organisation’s final official production table. Tanker movements, field data and later revisions can change country-level numbers.

For oil markets, the July increase improves supply availability but does not eliminate risk. Hormuz disruption, port restrictions, damaged infrastructure and expensive insurance can still limit exports or raise delivered costs. Restored production can also pressure prices if demand does not grow at the same pace, while renewed attacks could reverse the recovery quickly.

The business implications extend beyond producers. Refiners need predictable crude grades and delivery schedules; shipping companies need insurable routes; governments depend on revenue; and consumers face fuel and inflation effects. The large monthly gain is consequently significant, but its durability is more important than the headline number.

Future assessment should compare Reuters estimates with OPEC’s published secondary-source data and monitor actual exports, inventories and compliance. July shows that Gulf output can recover from extreme disruption, yet the continuing shortfall against targets indicates that operational and geopolitical constraints remain severe. A stable market requires not only more barrels at the wellhead but reliable transit, transparent data and sustained security.